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Prediction for CME (2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-23T09:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16961/-1
CME Note: The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T08:58Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 54.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 34.63 hour(s)
Difference: 20.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-05-25T18:34Z
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